Different visions of polycrisis

The term polycrisis is used across several distinct frameworks. This page introduces Edgar Morin’s La Polycrise, the Cascade Institute’s global polycrisis, and Mikael Mesnil Duprat’s Polycrise Mondiale.

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Explore three frameworks

Choose a deeper account. The terms are related, but their authors, subjects and uses differ.

La Polycrise in Morin

The crisiology of 1976, then planetary polycrisis in Terre-Patrie (1993).

Global polycrisis · Cascade Institute

A causal framework for studying how crises become entangled across multiple global systems.

Polycrise Mondiale · Mikael Mesnil Duprat

An author’s synthesis of Morin and Cascade, including the second-order crisis.

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A shared concern, several frameworks
An earlier Observatory usage (2023)
Historical reference points
The Observatory's role

A shared concern, several frameworks

These approaches seek to connect crises and their interactions rather than treat them as isolated events. They differ in scale, mechanisms, drivers and the role they give to observation. This page therefore does not present one definition as a consensus: the three frameworks above are explained and attributed separately.

An earlier Observatory usage (2023)

In 2023, the Observatory used “Polycrise Globale” for the point at which polycrises in different regions and sectors begin to evolve together at the global scale. This dated wording is retained to show how the terminology developed; it is neither the name of the Cascade framework nor the term Mikael Mesnil Duprat now prefers for his synthesis, Polycrise Mondiale.

Historical reference points

In 1976, Edgar Morin set out elements for a crisiology and called for putting the notion of crisis itself into crisis. In Terre-Patrie (1993), Morin and Anne-Brigitte Kern develop the notion of polycrisis. Mikael Mesnil Duprat’s preprint traces this genealogy; dates and attributions should be read against the cited sources.

https://www.seuil.com/ouvrage/terre-patrie-anne-brigitte-kern/9782020126533

The Observatory's role

The Observatory of Polycrises connects what seemed separate. We connect phenomena, disciplines, territories, stakeholders and temporalities to inform collective action and open response pathways commensurate with complexity.

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La Polycrise in Morin and Kern

In Terre-Patrie (1993), Edgar Morin and Anne-Brigitte Kern describe the complex intersolidarity of problems, antagonisms, crises and uncontrolled processes at the planetary scale. This thinking extends Morin’s work on crisis; it is not simply a list of contemporary crises or a definition produced by another framework.

https://www.seuil.com/ouvrage/terre-patrie-anne-brigitte-kern/9782020126533

Polycrisis: a definition reconstructed by Mikael Mesnil Duprat (2023)

This 2023 formulation is a reconstruction and update proposed by Mikael Mesnil Duprat on the basis of Morin and Kern. It is not a quotation from Morin or a consensus definition of the literature as a whole. This page retains it as a stage in the Observatory’s changing terminology.

Proposal by Mikael Mesnil Duprat (2023), based on Morin and Kern; wording distinct from the original texts.

Polycrise Globale: the Observatory’s terminology in 2023

In its 2023 terminology, the Observatory used “Polycrise Globale” for the point at which polycrises in different regions and sectors begin to evolve together at the global scale. This historical usage should be distinguished from the Cascade Institute’s global polycrisis and the Polycrise Mondiale later proposed by Mikael Mesnil Duprat.

Recent methodological pointers

To formalize cascade mechanisms, inter-system feedbacks and synchronization, refer to the Cascade Institute and related scholarly literature.

https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/What-is-a-global-polycrisis-version-1.1-27April2022.pdf

https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/The-Causal-Mechanisms-of-Global-Polycrisis-v1.1-11July2023.pdf

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/global-polycrisis-the-causal-mechanisms-of-crisis-entanglement/06F0F8F3B993A221971151E3CB054B5E

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La Polycrise in Edgar Morin and Anne-Brigitte Kern

In Terre-Patrie (1993), Edgar Morin and Anne-Brigitte Kern describe the complex intersolidarity of the planet’s problems, antagonisms, crises and uncontrolled processes. In “Pour une crisologie” (1976), Morin also examines uncertainty and the limits of the notion of crisis, calling for the notion itself to be put into crisis. These texts form an intellectual lineage; later formulations of global polycrisis or Polycrise Mondiale must be attributed separately.

https://www.seuil.com/ouvrage/terre-patrie-anne-brigitte-kern/9782020126533

A reconstruction proposed by Mikael Mesnil Duprat (2023)

Reconstructed and updated definition.

Polycrisis is a system of interdependent crises marked by rising uncertainties, by regulatory breakdowns, and by the amplification of non-linear dynamics that may be destructive or transformative. These properties explain why isolated responses fall short.

Analytical synthesis in prose.

Polycrisis forms a bundle of interconnected crises. Uncertainty rises and undermines anticipation. Regulatory breakdowns appear when ordinary feedbacks no longer dampen shocks. Dynamics amplify when feedback loops, thresholds and synchronizations abruptly shift system regimes. Narrowly sectoral responses overlook composition effects across energy, finance, logistics, information, institutions and ecosystems.

Proposal by Mikael Mesnil Duprat (2023), based on Morin and Kern; wording distinct from the original texts.

Three contemporary frameworks, three questions

The three linked pages at the start of this page answer different questions: how do Morin and Kern think about the polycrisis condition and the crisis of the notion of crisis? Through what mechanisms do crises become entangled across global systems in Cascade’s framework? How does Mikael Mesnil Duprat’s proposal bring these perspectives into dialogue and incorporate second-order crisis? The Observatory’s 2023 use of “Polycrise Globale” is dated and documented above.

Explanatory dynamics. Teaching analogies

The sandpile

A sandpile fed at a constant rate periodically reaches a fragile configuration and suddenly slips. The last grain is ordinary. What matters is the system's state. Small causes can have large effects depending on the overall configuration. In polycrisis, energy, economy, logistics and information are tightly linked. Minor incidents can cascade when safety margins are thin and buffers insufficient.

Stop-and-go waves

A regular traffic flow can produce a congestion wave with no visible obstacle. Delays in the sense–act loop convert local adjustments into collective oscillations. In a polycrisis, delays in information, decision and investment generate such oscillations, especially when systems are coupled.

Metronomes on a board

Metronomes placed on the same board eventually beat in unison, not by intention but by coupling through the support. Today, energy and its prices, credit and interest rates, supply chains, digital platforms and power grids play that supporting role. A bounded shock can propagate and phase-lock economy, society and politics.

Thresholds and non-linearities

Small changes can cross a threshold and shift regimes. Effects are not proportional to causes. The system's state is decisive.

Interconnection cascades

A shock does not remain local. It travels through several networks at once and changes nature along the way. A supply disruption becomes a price spike, then social tension and political risk. This is not a line of dominos but a web of intersecting channels that reinforce one another.

Recent scientific references framing the mechanisms

Lawrence, Michael ; Janzwood, Scott ; Homer-Dixon, Thomas. What is a Global Polycrisis. Version 1.1, 27 avril 2022.
https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/What-is-a-global-polycrisis-version-1.1-27April2022.pdf

Lawrence, Michael ; Janzwood, Scott ; Homer-Dixon, Thomas. The Causal Mechanisms of Global Polycrisis. Version 1.1, 11 juillet 2023.
https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/The-Causal-Mechanisms-of-Global-Polycrisis-v1.1-11July2023.pdf

Lawrence, Michael, et al. Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement. Global Sustainability, 2024.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/global-polycrisis-the-causal-mechanisms-of-crisis-entanglement/06F0F8F3B993A221971151E3CB054B5E

The Observatory of Polycrises

Our mission is to connect. We connect crises and knowledge, disciplines and professions, public and private actors, territories and time horizons. We clarify causal mechanisms, identify tipping points and support the design of integrated responses from local to global, consistent with the best available knowledge and real-world constraints.

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Bibliographic reference

Format APA 7

Mesnil Duprat, Mikael. (2023). Définition reconstituée de la polycrise. D'après Morin, E., & Kern, A.-B. (1993). Terre-Patrie. Paris : Seuil. Observatoire des Polycrises. https://polycrisis-observatory.org/definition/

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Chicago

Mesnil Duprat, Mikael. 2023. "Définition reconstituée de la polycrise." D'après Edgar Morin et Anne-Brigitte Kern. Terre-Patrie. Paris : Seuil, 1993. Observatoire des Polycrises. https://polycrisis-observatory.org/definition/.

Presse / Web

Mikael Mesnil Duprat, Observatoire des Polycrises (2023), d'après Edgar Morin et Anne-Brigitte Kern, Terre-Patrie (Seuil, 1993).

Publication information

Author: Mikael Mesnil Duprat
Affiliation: Polycrisis Observatory, Toulouse
Publication year: 2023
Version: 1.0
Primary source: Morin, E., & Kern, A.-B. (1993). Terre-Patrie. Paris : Seuil. ↗
Reference work: Mesnil Duprat, M. (2026). De la crisologie à polycrisis : généalogie du concept de polycrise. Prépublication. DOI : 10.5281/zenodo.20383004

Resources and references

Morin, Edgar. « Pour une crisologie ». Communications, 25 (1976), p. 149–163.

Texte intégral sur Persée ↗

Morin, Edgar, et Anne-Brigitte Kern. Terre-Patrie. Paris, Seuil, 1993.

https://www.seuil.com/ouvrage/terre-patrie-anne-brigitte-kern/9782020126533

Delannoy, Louis, et al. “More than a buzzword? Mapping interpretations of the ‘polycrisis’.” Sustainability Science 21 (2026), 1177–1191.

Article et méthode Q ↗

Rakowski, Judith J., et al. “Characterizing the Global Polycrisis: A Systematic Review of Recent Literature.” Annual Review of Environment and Resources 50 (2025), 159–183.

Revue systématique ↗

IPCC. Global Warming of 1.5°C. 2018.

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

IPCC. Climate Change 2021. The Physical Science Basis. AR6 WG I.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ SPM direct: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf

World Economic Forum. The Global Risks Report 2023.

https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf

Cascade Institute. What is a Global Polycrisis. Version 1.1, 27 avril 2022.

https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/What-is-a-global-polycrisis-version-1.1-27April2022.pdf

Cascade Institute. The Causal Mechanisms of Global Polycrisis. Version 1.1, 11 juillet 2023.

https://cascadeinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/The-Causal-Mechanisms-of-Global-Polycrisis-v1.1-11July2023.pdf

Lawrence, Michael, et al. Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement. Global Sustainability, 2024.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/global-polycrisis-the-causal-mechanisms-of-crisis-entanglement/06F0F8F3B993A221971151E3CB054B5E

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