Ocean surplus · 1980 – 2050
Simulation & counter →Lower bound: SSP2-4.5 scenario (2-reservoir model). Upper bound: if 2019–2026 acceleration continued — pedagogical comparison, not a forecast or IAP margin.
Extended EEI (SSP scenarios): the model's relative change in radiative imbalance, applied to the value observed in 2026. Methods →
- Main curve: 20-year rolling slope (least squares) through 2020; annual changes are shown from 2021 onward. The jump between them reflects a change in method.
- Scenario trends (2026–2050)
- Illustrative range (2026–2050)
- Recent trend (reference)
Atmospheric CO₂ concentration · Mauna Loa
The radiative forcing that drives ocean surplus is linked to CO₂ accumulation in the atmosphere. Annual means published by NOAA GML (Keeling Curve).
CO₂ ends in 2026 (observations and short extrapolation): only ocean surplus is projected beyond, per selected scenarios.
- CO₂ (ppm)
- 5-year moving trend
- 400 ppm threshold (2015)
Source: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory · Mauna Loa Observatory. 2026: extrapolated value.
Ocean sea surface temperature · July 2026
Latest Copernicus bulletin: July 2026 is the warmest July on record at the ocean surface, after daily records in June. This metric is SST, distinct from the OHC shown above.
Reading: SST measures the ocean skin, not the energy stored in the water column (OHC). July 2026 exceeds the previous July record (2023) by 0.07 °C; surface air was +1.47 °C above 1850–1900.
Sources: Copernicus C3S, July 2026 bulletin; June peak: Copernicus C3S & Copernicus Marine, 1 July 2026. Not used to recalibrate OHC.
Cross-reading
In 2025: ~5.92 bombs/s absorbed by the ocean as a 20-year trend (11.7 ZJ/yr) while atmospheric CO₂ reaches 427.35 ppm (+88.6 ppm since 1980). Both curves rise in parallel — radiative imbalance (EEI) reflects the gap between incoming and outgoing energy.
Beyond 2026, projected curves show an absorption rate (ZJ/yr), not a new measurement: they extend emissions scenarios or recent acceleration for illustration.